Friday, October 01, 2010

1345 Undepressing

I know it doesn’t feel like it now. But that mild stimulation you’re about to feel? They’re because the recession is over. Not only that, the non-partisan experts say it’s been over since June of 2009.
Of course that means one thing. The political parties are fighting over whether it’s over or not. And who gets the credit or blame in time for the elections.
If it’s over, Democrat fiscal policy and stimulus worked. If it’s not over, Republican’s insistence that doing Democratic something is worse than doing Republican nothing is right.
Hell no, let the natural economy flow.
The funny thing is, they are both pointing to figures both of them pointed the opposite way at last recession—GDP vs Employment. The recession of 2001 was similar to the current one because the moment the experts called as the low point and GDP turnaround was way behind job figures actually going up.
In the Republican recession that came after the Clinton administration tech bubble burst, job figures took an amazing 19 months to turn around after the recession was over. This despite Bush tax cuts.
In the Democratic recession after the blowout of the unregulated banking mortgage bubble of the Bush administration, job figures only took 15 months to turn around after the low point turnaround call.
At least the stock market is giddy. Because the economy, by every other metric, has been slowly improving since June of 2009, about the time the stimulus money kicked in.
Still, it hasn’t been all that stimulating for the rest of us. It’s been a far from vigorous recovery. Tepid as lukewarm tea.
How does that song go? Mildly happy sort of days are kind of here again…
America, ya gotta love it.

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